Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

GenCast diffusion ensemble, 0.25 degree, 12-hour steps, 15-day horizon; 50-member ensembles; more skillful than ECMWF ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets; one 15-day forecast in about 8 minutes on a TPUv5.

Machine-learned weather forecasting