# Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning

*Source* · `src-price-2024-gencast` · status: **n/a**

| field | value |
|---|---|
| kind | Peer-reviewed paper |
| authors | Ilan Price, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Ferran Alet, et al., Matthew Willson |
| venue | Nature 637, 84-90 |
| date | 2024-12-04 |
| url | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9 |
| doi | 10.1038/s41586-024-08252-9 |
| arxiv | 2312.15796 |
| accessed | 2026-10-24 |

## Notes

GenCast diffusion ensemble, 0.25 degree, 12-hour steps, 15-day horizon; 50-member ensembles; more skillful than ECMWF ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets; one 15-day forecast in about 8 minutes on a TPUv5.

## Backlinks (computed)

**cited by:** [Machine-learned weather forecasting](../technique/ml-weather-models.md)

## Citation

Ilan Price, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Ferran Alet, et al., Matthew Willson (2024-12-04). *Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning*. Nature 637, 84-90 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

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Provenance: created in run `2026-10-24-techniques-sim-math`.