# Quality-diversity scenario libraries

*Opportunity* · `qd-scenario-libraries` · status: **asserted**

Generate large libraries of scenarios that cover a grid of difficulty and play style, so scenario-driven sims never run out of distinct challenges.

| field | value |
|---|---|
| opportunity type | Authoring tool |
| involves | [Scenario objectives](../mechanic/scenario-objectives.md), [Procedural terrain](../mechanic/procedural-terrain.md), [Milestone unlocks](../mechanic/milestone-unlocks.md), [Comparative histograms](../mechanic/comparative-histograms.md) |
| applies | [Quality-diversity search (MAP-Elites) for content and balance](../technique/quality-diversity-search.md), [Learned level and map generation (PCGRL, MarioGPT, LLM generators)](../technique/learned-level-generation.md), [Agent-based automated playtesting and balancing](../technique/automated-playtesting.md) |
| precedent | [RollerCoaster Tycoon](../game/rollercoaster-tycoon.md), [Poly Bridge](../game/poly-bridge.md), [Islanders](../game/islanders.md), [Opus Magnum](../game/opus-magnum.md) |
| novelty | 2 |
| feasibility | 5 |
| impact | 2 |
| horizon | Now |
| key risks | Generated scenarios feel generic., Agent-solvable is not the same as fun. |
| falsifiable signal | {'prediction': 'A simulation or puzzle-sim game will ship a scenario library generated by quality-diversity search.', 'resolve_by': '2028-06-30', 'criteria': 'Content first shipped after 2026-10-24 in a title with at least 1,000 Steam user reviews; developer documentation names quality-diversity or MAP-Elites generation for shipped scenarios or levels.'} |
| prediction status *(computed)* | open |
| priority *(computed)* | 2.756 |

## Thesis

Scenario modes are expensive to author and players exhaust them. Quality-diversity search can fill a map of scenario descriptors (resource scarcity, threat timing, terrain constraint) with playable, validated scenarios, and learned generators can add theming. Agent playtests confirm each is solvable and estimate difficulty.

## Design Sketch

A scenario browser shows a grid of challenge types by difficulty; each cell holds generated scenarios that agents have solved, with par times. Players rate them; ratings retrain the generator.

## Key Risks

- Generated scenarios feel generic.
- Agent-solvable is not the same as fun.

## Validation Experiment

Generate 500 scenarios for a bridge or park builder with MAP-Elites over three descriptors; have players compare random generated scenarios with authored ones. Success: generated scenarios rated at least 80 percent as enjoyable as authored ones.

## Falsifiable signal

- **Prediction:** A simulation or puzzle-sim game will ship a scenario library generated by quality-diversity search.
- **Resolve by:** 2028-06-30
- **Criteria:** Content first shipped after 2026-10-24 in a title with at least 1,000 Steam user reviews; developer documentation names quality-diversity or MAP-Elites generation for shipped scenarios or levels.
- **Outcome:** open

## Relations

**applies**

- [Quality-diversity search (MAP-Elites) for content and balance](../technique/quality-diversity-search.md)
- [Learned level and map generation (PCGRL, MarioGPT, LLM generators)](../technique/learned-level-generation.md)
- [Agent-based automated playtesting and balancing](../technique/automated-playtesting.md)

**involves**

- [Scenario objectives](../mechanic/scenario-objectives.md)
- [Procedural terrain](../mechanic/procedural-terrain.md)
- [Milestone unlocks](../mechanic/milestone-unlocks.md)
- [Comparative histograms](../mechanic/comparative-histograms.md)

**precedent**

- [RollerCoaster Tycoon](../game/rollercoaster-tycoon.md)
- [Poly Bridge](../game/poly-bridge.md)
- [Islanders](../game/islanders.md)
- [Opus Magnum](../game/opus-magnum.md)

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Provenance: created in run `2026-10-24-synthesis`; reviewed in `2026-10-24-review-fixes`.